After weeks of resignations, scandal and a deepening legal turmoil, Donald Trump had a good week – or at least a good couple of days. Between tariffs and North Korea, Trump was on his game.
Say what you will about whether he announced tariffs to change the story from hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, it worked. Tariffs knocked Daniels off the front pages of the newspapers, and replaced that story with the image of a the strong, deeply caring President greeting steelworkers in the White House, hearing their stories, and basking in their appreciation for defending them, their families and their communities against the onslaught of the world. It is exactly what he promised.
When he is running the show, Trump is a master of imagery and narrative. Surrounded by beefy steelworkers, hearing their stories, offering them praise. The working man's hero making America great again.
Scott Sauritich, a local union leader from a Pennsylvania steel town told his story. "My father, during the '80s, he lost his job due to imports coming into this country. And I just want to tell you what that does to a man with six kids is devastating. So I never forgot that looking into his eyes in my household what that does to a family. You hear about it, but when you're actually involved and it impacts you, it's - it'll never leave you."
Your father must be very proud of you, the President offers. He is center stage with the cameras rolling. It is his show. He is relaxed, affable, and shows an easy sense of humor.
But the breadth of the tariffs is already beginning to fade. Just days ago, the White House insisted there would be no exemptions to the American action, but Canada and Mexico, the largest and fourth largest sources of imported steel, have already been excluded. Exemptions are also expected for other allies. Certainly South Korea, the third largest source of imports, which just delivered Trump a possibly earthshaking meeting with Kim Jong-un, will not be punished for its efforts. Together, those three represent 35% of steel imports into the country.
That leaves Brazil and Russia as the last of the top five largest importers, which together deliver a further 20+% of imports into the U.S. Then there are Japan, Taiwan and Germany, three staunch allies, who make up another 12%. Time will tell whether, as attention turns elsewhere, pressure from allies, Congress, and the ever-curious Russia story, will further erode the impact of tariffs celebrated by the steelworkers that Trump gathered around himself. Suffice it to say, if Trump gives in to the pressures he is already facing, as much as 75% of imports may turn out to be reduced or waived altogether. But Trump lives for the attention and adulation in the moment, and seems oblivious to whether anything of enduring value survives.
Trump's reality show chops have been on display of late, and he is very good at it. His new favorite platform – the White House meetings with bi-partisan groups of Senators to knock heads and make deals – have all the appearance of what one might have hoped for from a President Trump, based on how he sold himself on the campaign trail. At the meeting on guns, Trump sat California Democrat Diane Feinstein – the architect of the automatic weapons ban that has long since lapsed – to his left. He orchestrated a back and forth between the Democrats and Republicans, suggesting what could and couldn't work, shocking Republicans in the room as he deferred to the Democrats. Feinstein became visibly giddy with excitement as the President put the real issues on the table and swatted aside the legitimacy of the National Riffle Association as a player in the legislative deal making.
We had seen this performance before, when Trump put himself front and center in a similar meeting on DACA and immigrations. There, he presaged the staged nature of the proceedings as he literally welcomed the Senators into his "studio." He was the master of ceremonies, and set a strong tone laying out the issues, leaving Republicans dumbstruck as the man who rode visceral partisan anger over immigration to the presidency positioned himself as a neutral arbiter; a dealmaker serving the nation's interest. Then, as with guns, he assured the group that, like Prometheus stealing fire from the gods, he would take the heat; he would bear the political risk of passing an immigration bill over what was certain to be angry objections from the Republican base.
The Republican base, of course, is the Trump base, and each time, once the cameras were off and the Senators had retreated to their chambers, Trump reverted to his political safe space. No deals made in his studio survived the light of day. Stephen Miller, Trump's 32 year old senior advisor who presides as the Prefect of the Doctrine of the Faith, is now responsible in Steve Bannon's absence for pulling Trump back from the brink when he makes commitments that violate his oath to the MAGA faithful; and so he did. The deal on DACA died a swift death as Miller added new conditions that quickly scuttled the purported deal. Progress toward action on guns was put to bed by an announcement by the NRA that they had met with Trump a few hours after the meeting. Whatever Trump might have suggested in that room was mistaken; his position on guns was not really what he said it was.
On Thursday, Trump blindsided his own foreign policy team by agreeing to meet face-to-face with North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un. It has all the makings of more great television. Saudi Arabia and China laid out the script for the rest of the world, that the President can be seduced by a hero's welcome with high production values. The South Koreans – who lie in the path of Kim's artillery and are most vulnerable to nuclear annihilation should the cascade of insults between Kim and Trump lead one of them to actually start something – stroked Trump's ego furiously as they announced the pending meeting.
If it comes to something, the solution to the North Korea problem that South Korea's National Security Advisor suggested was at hand would cement Trump's legacy. But we are a long way from that. A meeting in and of itself – regardless of what it leads to down the road – looms to give each of the two leaders what they value most. Kim Jong-un will get to stand side-to-side on equal terms with the most powerful man on the planet. For his part, Donald Trump will stand before the assembled cameras of the world, as Clinton, Bush and Obama had each failed to do, and declare peace in our time.
Commenting after the White House ceremony, Scott Sauritch did not see the cynical side, the risk that he was just a prop in one more episode of a reality show presidency. "I think this all needs action right now," he emphasized. "Let me tell you something...this change in the steel industry, this attention to what's going on right now had to happen... For the infrastructure and the safety and security it needed to happen."
Sauritch, like many of Trump's supporters, may take him at his word, but, as with all of the President's striking performances, it is the next day that matters; and the day after that. In DACA and guns and infrastructure week, and now with tariffs, once the show ends and the cameras stop rolling, Trump's attention fades and his commitment withers, and, at the end of the day, little of substance is actually achieved.
If there is a deal to be reached with North Korea – or even for real negotiations to begin – members of the foreign policy establishment have observed that the President will need a diplomatic infrastructure that he currently does not have. Right now, we have no ambassador on the Korean peninsula. Nor, apparently, does Rex Tillerson have a staffed East Asia desk. In an earlier time, one would have assumed that the President would task Jared Kushner to put together the North Korea peace deal. But his star has faded of late, and, in any event, his plate is probably full with Mexico, the Middle East and China, to say nothing of his own personal legal defense and lack of security clearance.
Getting to an actual deal will be the difficult part, not arranging one face-to-face meeting. A meeting, after all, does not required Kim to relinquish his nukes or Trump his rhetoric. But should a deal be struck and a written agreement actually drafted, getting it signed – which is the point of greatest political risk – could present a challenge all of its own. If you don't believe that, just ask Stormy Daniels.
Follow David Paul on Twitter @dpaul. He is working on a book, with a working title of "FedExit: Why Federalism is Not Just For Racists Anymore."
Artwork by Jay Duret. Check out his political cartooning at www.jayduret.com. Follow him on Twitter @jayduret or Instagram at @joefaces.
Say what you will about whether he announced tariffs to change the story from hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, it worked. Tariffs knocked Daniels off the front pages of the newspapers, and replaced that story with the image of a the strong, deeply caring President greeting steelworkers in the White House, hearing their stories, and basking in their appreciation for defending them, their families and their communities against the onslaught of the world. It is exactly what he promised.
When he is running the show, Trump is a master of imagery and narrative. Surrounded by beefy steelworkers, hearing their stories, offering them praise. The working man's hero making America great again.
Scott Sauritich, a local union leader from a Pennsylvania steel town told his story. "My father, during the '80s, he lost his job due to imports coming into this country. And I just want to tell you what that does to a man with six kids is devastating. So I never forgot that looking into his eyes in my household what that does to a family. You hear about it, but when you're actually involved and it impacts you, it's - it'll never leave you."
Your father must be very proud of you, the President offers. He is center stage with the cameras rolling. It is his show. He is relaxed, affable, and shows an easy sense of humor.
But the breadth of the tariffs is already beginning to fade. Just days ago, the White House insisted there would be no exemptions to the American action, but Canada and Mexico, the largest and fourth largest sources of imported steel, have already been excluded. Exemptions are also expected for other allies. Certainly South Korea, the third largest source of imports, which just delivered Trump a possibly earthshaking meeting with Kim Jong-un, will not be punished for its efforts. Together, those three represent 35% of steel imports into the country.
That leaves Brazil and Russia as the last of the top five largest importers, which together deliver a further 20+% of imports into the U.S. Then there are Japan, Taiwan and Germany, three staunch allies, who make up another 12%. Time will tell whether, as attention turns elsewhere, pressure from allies, Congress, and the ever-curious Russia story, will further erode the impact of tariffs celebrated by the steelworkers that Trump gathered around himself. Suffice it to say, if Trump gives in to the pressures he is already facing, as much as 75% of imports may turn out to be reduced or waived altogether. But Trump lives for the attention and adulation in the moment, and seems oblivious to whether anything of enduring value survives.
Trump's reality show chops have been on display of late, and he is very good at it. His new favorite platform – the White House meetings with bi-partisan groups of Senators to knock heads and make deals – have all the appearance of what one might have hoped for from a President Trump, based on how he sold himself on the campaign trail. At the meeting on guns, Trump sat California Democrat Diane Feinstein – the architect of the automatic weapons ban that has long since lapsed – to his left. He orchestrated a back and forth between the Democrats and Republicans, suggesting what could and couldn't work, shocking Republicans in the room as he deferred to the Democrats. Feinstein became visibly giddy with excitement as the President put the real issues on the table and swatted aside the legitimacy of the National Riffle Association as a player in the legislative deal making.
We had seen this performance before, when Trump put himself front and center in a similar meeting on DACA and immigrations. There, he presaged the staged nature of the proceedings as he literally welcomed the Senators into his "studio." He was the master of ceremonies, and set a strong tone laying out the issues, leaving Republicans dumbstruck as the man who rode visceral partisan anger over immigration to the presidency positioned himself as a neutral arbiter; a dealmaker serving the nation's interest. Then, as with guns, he assured the group that, like Prometheus stealing fire from the gods, he would take the heat; he would bear the political risk of passing an immigration bill over what was certain to be angry objections from the Republican base.
The Republican base, of course, is the Trump base, and each time, once the cameras were off and the Senators had retreated to their chambers, Trump reverted to his political safe space. No deals made in his studio survived the light of day. Stephen Miller, Trump's 32 year old senior advisor who presides as the Prefect of the Doctrine of the Faith, is now responsible in Steve Bannon's absence for pulling Trump back from the brink when he makes commitments that violate his oath to the MAGA faithful; and so he did. The deal on DACA died a swift death as Miller added new conditions that quickly scuttled the purported deal. Progress toward action on guns was put to bed by an announcement by the NRA that they had met with Trump a few hours after the meeting. Whatever Trump might have suggested in that room was mistaken; his position on guns was not really what he said it was.
If it comes to something, the solution to the North Korea problem that South Korea's National Security Advisor suggested was at hand would cement Trump's legacy. But we are a long way from that. A meeting in and of itself – regardless of what it leads to down the road – looms to give each of the two leaders what they value most. Kim Jong-un will get to stand side-to-side on equal terms with the most powerful man on the planet. For his part, Donald Trump will stand before the assembled cameras of the world, as Clinton, Bush and Obama had each failed to do, and declare peace in our time.
Commenting after the White House ceremony, Scott Sauritch did not see the cynical side, the risk that he was just a prop in one more episode of a reality show presidency. "I think this all needs action right now," he emphasized. "Let me tell you something...this change in the steel industry, this attention to what's going on right now had to happen... For the infrastructure and the safety and security it needed to happen."
Sauritch, like many of Trump's supporters, may take him at his word, but, as with all of the President's striking performances, it is the next day that matters; and the day after that. In DACA and guns and infrastructure week, and now with tariffs, once the show ends and the cameras stop rolling, Trump's attention fades and his commitment withers, and, at the end of the day, little of substance is actually achieved.
If there is a deal to be reached with North Korea – or even for real negotiations to begin – members of the foreign policy establishment have observed that the President will need a diplomatic infrastructure that he currently does not have. Right now, we have no ambassador on the Korean peninsula. Nor, apparently, does Rex Tillerson have a staffed East Asia desk. In an earlier time, one would have assumed that the President would task Jared Kushner to put together the North Korea peace deal. But his star has faded of late, and, in any event, his plate is probably full with Mexico, the Middle East and China, to say nothing of his own personal legal defense and lack of security clearance.
Getting to an actual deal will be the difficult part, not arranging one face-to-face meeting. A meeting, after all, does not required Kim to relinquish his nukes or Trump his rhetoric. But should a deal be struck and a written agreement actually drafted, getting it signed – which is the point of greatest political risk – could present a challenge all of its own. If you don't believe that, just ask Stormy Daniels.
Follow David Paul on Twitter @dpaul. He is working on a book, with a working title of "FedExit: Why Federalism is Not Just For Racists Anymore."
Artwork by Jay Duret. Check out his political cartooning at www.jayduret.com. Follow him on Twitter @jayduret or Instagram at @joefaces.
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